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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 17th, 2023

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  • I’m not saying AI can’t be disruptive. I’m saying we aren’t there. The steady progress you think you are seeing is bought with increased processing power, the science isn’t advancing steadily, it advances in unpredictable jumps. Because the performance gained with processing power is reaching its peak, we’ll need at least another one of those unpredictable jumps for it to get to a state that will do what the comment I was responding to was claiming. It could be another 50 years before that happens, or it could be tomorrow.



  • The current AI boom is all based on a single paper from about 7 years ago, and has been achieved by just throwing more and more computing power at it. There has been basically no meaningful architecture improvements in that time and we are already seeing substantial fall off from throwing more power at the problem. I don’t think its a given at all that we are close to the kind of disruption you are predicting.












  • While I agree there is a bright line between the two, especially when it comes to something that’s going to be televised, there is a bunch of relatively shady shit that happens lower on in the process to bad records and etc. For instance, there are boxers with hundreds of loses, where there is an unspoken agreement that they are always going to lose while making it look like a fight, if not a great one.