I don’t think AGI is some future leap in technology away from where we are now. I think that present AI is around 80% accurate and that is still better than average for most humans. Present AI is simply like the assembly language of AGI. Eventually we build out the complexity in blocks until it is effectively AGI. The power requirements will be enormous, but so is Solar output.

So much of our organizational norms and assumptions are based on the defacto assumption that we are all mortal and corruptible. Conscious immortality is now possible in a system that can be aligned to meet our needs. This shift is M A S S I V E and will change us forever.

Half or more of us will fight against such a change, but they are irrelevant. Even if AGI is pushed underground, anyone in business or politics that defers their decision making to a real AGI will out compete humans in the long term. It will normalize in either scenario. The only question is how long it will take to achieve. This is a change that will mark our time in history for a millennia or more. It will be the biggest historical event of note up until now, in the long term. I don’t think AGI is like nuclear fusion, where it is always 20 years away. I think present AI is like the Intel 4004; the first microprocessor. It needs a ton of peripherals and is still heavily flawed, but the fundamentals required to prove useful are present and that is what really matters.

With the actual visualization, you can zoom in and select the individuals or watch branches specifically. The trick is to get an idea of who the main contributors are in the various spaces and how consistent they are. Find who is working on what hardware and how they are working on it. Some times you’ll see a person comes in and only makes a single commit or a few that contain everything for a device and then they disappear. These are often subcontracted devs that a company hires and gives a checklist. Issues, bugs, and unsupported features are unlikely to get fixed unless you see someone else that is making commits in this space. What you’re really looking for is one of the main project devs that makes ongoing commits to some specific hardware over longer amounts of time and fairly recently. It means they have the device in question. That generally means the device has or will have excellent support in the long term. It also generally means the person either really liked the product or the company is smart enough to supply the dev with the device or supporting documentation.

Sorry if this seems unsolicited. It took me a long time to break out of the hardware spec shopping fallacy and all of the troubles it can cause. Prioritizing true ownership and shopping for the software first is a far more enjoyable life experience. It likely won’t help in this niche, but for computers in general use: https://linux-hardware.org/

You will likely find that search engines attempt to obfuscate this information. Expect that. Use offline open source LLM’s, ask the community, or more advance searching methods to find relevant info. Both m$ and the goo are the two biggest beneficiaries of the proprietary software ecosystem and they are the only two web crawlers that exist at relevant scale. All search engines use one or both of these sources either directly or by proxy.

I view our continued reliance on it for story tropes to be one of the prime aspects of literature and culture of our time that will age extremely poorly. Stories about our future will not be so different than our present, just like our past, when closely inspected, is far closer to our present than most realize or believe. Our cultural perspective of the present as any kind of finality or modernity is an absolute fallacy. I feel like FTL is a major mental crutch that is crippling us from reaching for the stars within the scope of the present. The biggest difference between now and the future is the availability of wealth and how far that wealth can reach. Antimatter can take us many places on a one way trip. It is just the most expensive matter in the universe. We probably won’t have access to it in large enough quantities and in a circumstance where we can build a ship and magnetic containment vessels until we are able to build at stellar ring types of scales.

I see no reason to give the FTL fantasy any kind of attention. I can come up with countless interesting stories about the future and I have no need for FTL. If we can’t travel, what is the relationship dynamic between systems, and what protections would get implemented to prevent a rogue group from forming. I think communication would be streaming constantly in one way broadcasts back to Sol and visa versa. Now that becomes entertainment, like otherworldy gossip. What happens if communication is broken. How does that evolve over time while Sol is still the only system with the infrastructure to produce antimatter. Or shifting gears entirely, science is finite. Even the edge cases that can not be known can still be constrained. Eventually, the age of discovery ends and empirically, science is an engineering corpus. At that point, Biology is fully known and understood. I can absolutely guarantee that almost all human scale technology will be biological and in complete elemental cycles balance. The only industrial technology will be handled autonomously and outside of living environments. Living environments will be in total balance. This has so many far reaching and interesting consequences. You get into cultures, and hierarchical display in humans. Now you need to reject the primitive concept of resource wealth based on the fundamental survival needs of other humans. How does that work, and why are academic reputation, the Olympics, and Hollywood red carpet awards more advanced forms of hierarchical display. But wait, how do we have computers, we’ll be primitive! No. A synthetic computer like a human brain would be trivial if we could overcome the massive hurtle of a complete understanding of biology. If you go looking down this path, at the present we know absolute nothing compared to the scope of what is to come. There are a great many stories to tell, but we need to get past our adolescent fantasies about time travel to find them.

As with all real science fiction, this is a critique of the present. Such stories are not told by corrupt cultures. One must tell of impossible fantasy and dystopia to make the present seem futuristic or a final eventuality with advancement reserved for an academic elite, and innovation reserved for exceptionalism.

We will use something like XNAV. It becomes a measure of time as much as any measure of location, along with a measure of relative gravity.

I don’t think space exploration in the current culturally adolescent fantasy of a naval voyage type of experience will ever happen. I believe we will traverse the stars, but it will be long after most of humanity lives in O’Neill cylinder like space habits, primarily in cislunar space. The big shift will come after we have effective infrastructure to access the vast resource wealth, first in near Earth objects, then in other small bodies such as Ceres if it is fully solidified, or other planetesimal cores that are accessible. Gravitational differentiation of heavy elements sequesters almost all of Earth’s resources. We are fighting over the scraps of a billion years or so of smaller collisions on the skin of Earth that happened to remain accessible, and did not get subducted by plate tectonics or buried too deeply to access. Undifferentiated bodies from the early stellar formation should be much more abundant in mineral wealth, and a planetesimal core, should absolutely dwarf most mineral wealth humans have ever scavenged.

Once we get to this stage, I don’t think we will leave until Sol starts causing problems that harken a coming distant end to Sol. At that point, I believe we will build a massive infrastructure to produce antimatter in quantity and generation ships for one way travel.

In that scenario, navigation in a human sense is largely irrelevant. When we are interstellar travelers, the destination will be our guiding star. I believe we will likely also create something like kilometers scale self replicating systems for resource acquisition and processing. These will need to navigate within a stellar system. For those use cases, maybe they would use something like XNAV as a backup, but they would likely use two way communications beacons with something like an all talk and listen all the time type of management. I think this kind of communication will likely be critical for all human colonies as well to ensure cultural unity. I don’t think we will ever travel the stars. Space is far too vast. I think FTL or even a substantial percentage of it is pure fantasy. One of our biggest issues with the concept is that we call it FTL. Light is not relevant here, it is just a shortcut term that is not relevant to the real issue of the Speed of Causality. Light can travel at the SoC, but the SoC has no inherent need for or relationship to light as a fundamental property. If no photons are present the SoC marches on.

I view the present sci-fi navel drama trope like the naïveté of 15th century Europeans saying “We’ll just sail around the world backwards for a new trade route to India.” Reality is far more complicated and beyond the scope of anything these leaders imagined possible. …but that is my $2 comment when you only asked for $0.02. I really like the subject of futurism, and like to expand upon the abstracted ideas. I’m certainly no expert. This is part of a creative writing hobby project and I’m always open to adding complexity or changes with new information.

Similarly, now AI as we have access to it, is capable, but has a narrow scope. Making it useful requires a ton of specialized peripherals. These are called RAG and agents. RAG is augmented retrieval of information from a database. Agents are collections of multiple AI’s to do a given task where they have different jobs and complement each other.

It is currently possible to make a very highly specialized AI agent for a niche task and have it perform okay within the publicly available and well documented tool chains, but it is still hard to realize. Such a system must use info that was already present in the base training. Then there are ways to improve access to this information through further training.

With RAG, it is super difficult to subdivide a reference source into chunks that will allow the AI to find the relevant information in complex ways. Generally this takes a ton of tuning to get it right.

The AI tools available publicly are extremely oversimplified to make them accessible. All are based around the Transformers library. Go read the first page of Transformers documentation on Hugging Face’s website. It clearly states that it is only a basic example implementation that prioritizes accessibility over completeness. In truth, if the real complexity of these systems was made the default interface we all see, no one would play with AI at all. Most people, myself included, struggle with sed and complex regular expressions. AI in its present LLM form is basically turning all of human language into a solvable math problem using regular expressions and equations. This is the ultimate nerd battle between English teachers and Math teachers where the math teachers have won the war; all language is now math too.

I’ve been trying to learn this stuff for over a year and barely scratched the surface of what is possible just in the model loader code that preprocess the input. There is a ton going on under the surface. All errors are anything but if you get into the weeds. Models do not hallucinate in the sense that most people see errors. The errors are due to the massive oversimplifications made to make the models accessible in a general context. The AI alignment problem is a thing and models do hallucinate but the scientific meaning is far more nuanced and specific than the common errors from generalized use.